Month April 2013

Overconfidence

Geir Isene 105 Comments

Having started and run several companies and a few IT companies in particular, this latest story from Slashdot particularly grabbed my attention. The point of the story, “overconfidence” is applicable is many fields and situations besides that of estimating IT project. First a copy-paste from Slashdot:

“Dan Milstein from Hut 8 Labs has written a lengthy post about why software developers often struggle to estimate the time required to implement their projects. Drawing on lessons from a book called Thinking Fast and Slow by Dan Kahneman, he explains how overconfidence frequently leads to underestimations of a project’s complexity. Unfortunately, the nature of overconfidence makes it tough to compensate. Quoting:

Specifically, in many, many situations, the following three things hold true: 1- ‘Expert’ predictions about some future event are so completely unreliable as to be basically meaningless 2- Nonetheless, the experts in question are extremely confident about the accuracy of their predictions. 3- And, best of all: absolutely nothing seems to be able to diminish the confidence that experts feel. The last one is truly remarkable: even if experts try to honestly face evidence of their own past failures, even if they deeply understand this flaw in human cognition they will still feel a deep sense of confidence in the accuracy of their predictions. As Kahneman explains it, after telling an amazing story about his own failing on this front: ‘The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.’”

And then quoting Laurens van der Post: “Human beings are perhaps never more frightening than when they are convinced beyond any doubt that they are right.”

And when people are convinced about their conviction, things tend to go south pretty fast. This is seen also during Internet discussions as well as real life discussions. People seek certainty. And the quest for certainty is the real value, not the attainment of it. Quoting Voltaire: “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.”

Thinking back to my childhood, I remember with fondness how I cherished the mysteries and uncertainties of life. I loved how I didn’t know, how I wanted to know, and my quest for new knowledge. But as time went by and I grew up, I unfortunately became more certain, less fondly in awe about life’s mysteries and less inquiring.

I am currently trying to find ways to kill my own certainties, be more open for new views and uncertainties and to bring more awe back into life.

Hugs.

Hubbard would recommend Eastern Philosophy

Geir Isene 66 Comments

Looking at the current scene of Scientology, I see no one reaching a high level of spiritualistic serenity. I see bankruptcies, torn families, even suicides. People enter Scientology with some idea or hope of more spiritual freedom or serenity. Had it been possible to reach such a state in, let’s say fourteen or eighteen years, I think most would jump at the possibility. But no, in fourteen or eighteen years in the Church of Scientology, you’re most probably sucked dry for both time and money.

Hubbard should have torn out whatever hair was left had he seen what the Church of Scientology was accomplishing these days. And I believe he would have recommended that people moved to India for their spiritual progress.

In the book “Dianetics 55!”, he wrote about his travels to the East and of people studying Eastern Philosophies:

“..I saw individuals taking fourteen or eighteen years in order to get up to a high level of spiritualistic serenity.”

That would be quite something. I will take Hubbard’s hint and check it out myself. Besides practicing hug-ology, of course.

Hugs!

Geir Isene 33 Comments

We can protest. We can rally against an irrelevant cult. We can debate lots of what-ifs and rail against gun control laws. Or we can do something effective right here and now.

We can start by giving hugs. Lots of hugs. Hug those closest to you. Then some friends. Then some strangers.

Try this: Hug two strangers tomorrow. Let me know how it worked out. I will report back on my hugging adventure. In the meantime:

Why ideologies can make you stupid

Geir Isene 380 Comments

I planned to write a blog post titled “Why Scientology makes you stupid”, but then one of the contributors on my blog beat me to it. I am honored to be blessed with many very intelligent people commenting here – it makes my job real easy. I was planning to write the blog post and release it today, but Alanzo did a better job at it than I would have done. While I planned to center my post on Scientology, Al broadened the scope to ideologies or belief systems in general:


A “belief system” is a cognitive structure, a way to see the world where your moral choices, your attitudes, and your feelings, are all pre-wired and structured ahead of time for you.

Here’s a made-up example of a belief system I will create for you as an example: “Reaganism”.

The Axioms of “Reaganism”:

  1. The government destroys everything it touches. Any time the government gets involved, whatever activity was supposed to happen that was useful becomes corrupted, over-priced and useless after the government gets done with it.
  2. Private enterprise can always do a better job of anything than the government can. The attempt to turn a profit always makes an activity more efficient and productive for everyone.
  3. Therefore, government should be run by businesses because businesses can always do a better job at anything than the government can.

So when you adopt Reaganism as your belief system and become a Reaganologist, you look out onto the infinitely big, wide world that actually exists out there, and you have the pre-wiring and the cognitive structures of Reaganism interpret and categorize the infinity of all you see into simple little chunks for you.

Government run road projects are filled with people who just stand around all day and never get any work done. Even though you are driving on a road ( a road built by a government run road project) you never notice that. You sneer and become resentful at all these lazy bums working on this road. Your belief structure has filtered out some things that do not conform to it and accepted others that do conform to it, and given you attitudes and emotions to feel per its dictates.

The Titans of Industry are heros to you, because they embody all the values that you have adopted as a Reaganologist, You swell with pride every time you see a CEO of Goldmann Sachs on TV and you can’t believe that any government bureaucrat at the SEC would ever question his business practices. Government oversight is criminal in your mind, and suppressive to the upstats in society.

As a Reaganologist, you see the world in the way that Reaganism dictates.

The advantage of a belief system, or an ideology, is that it takes the infinite world around you and breaks it up into bite-size chunks, with all of it pre-understood ahead of time. It makes things simpler.

This, once you have adopted a belief system, is also its disadvantage. You don’t see the world as it is any more. You see it only as your ideology dictates that you see it.

No ideology can match the infinity of life, or the infinity of you. The stronger you hold on to an ideology, the smaller, and more fixed, you become.

As more and more of the infinities of life hit you that do not fit into your ideological helmet, the more tightly you pull it down onto your self. Until at last, you become fixed and pinheaded.

This is the problem with belief systems.

Clear as Master Eric

Geir Isene 28 Comments

I wished I could have summed up my previous post as well as Master Eric. But then again, maybe it comes with the territory of being a master at martial arts. He captured the essence of my post nicely and added his own questions at the end:

“I am a 5th dan in Ryu Kyu Kempo. A form of Martial Arts. In it we have, like all modern martial arts a belt system. White belt and all the way up to Black belt and beyond to the so called secret moves of the upper levels 🙂

Yes, the upper black belt classes were not viewable by anyone under the black belt level. Considered too dangerous for the students who were not ready. Sounds familiar 🙂

Now, in the past, before the 19th century. There were no belt systems in martial arts. You only had a belt to hold your pants up 🙂

The only rule you had was that when you started you were given a very thick and strong white cotton belt that you did not ever wash. The reason for this was so that others knew how long you have been training and so they were careful not to hurt the lower level or inexperience students. The more and longer you trained, the belt will change colour from the sweat and so others will see the time of training you have had and know how skilled you would or should be.

So there were no Levels or grades in the old days. You progressed slowly by learning more and more and being more CLEAR about how to BE a MASTER of the ART.

Now the above is my way of trying to explain the concept of CLEAR. You never become CLEAR. You become CLEARER and CLEARER and CLEARER. Along the way you have AHA moments that help you move a big step forward but you are not CLEAR just CLEARER than before…..There are no states that are the same for everyone. Each will progress and get CLEARER as they work on themselves. There are NO ABSOLUTES…

To me I find the more I work on myself, the LESS MIND I have and more of ME expanded. Difficult to put in to words. I find that this thing called MIND is less and MORE of ME is HERE. But if I let go of my self work and focus on life only, then, I feel this thing called MIND more and more and I feel Less and Less expanded.

So what this thing called is or if it actually IS anything is an interesting subject. Maybe the MIND is the GLUE that holds our attention to this Creation that we apparently agree on altogether. Maybe, no MIND means total freedom… Just sayin 🙂”

Conclusion: There are no Clears

Geir Isene 585 Comments

I have come to the conclusion – through discussions on this blog and otherwise – that there is no such thing as a “reactive mind“… and that leading people to believe there is such may get them to “create it” it and dramatize it.

WHAT A BOMB SHELL. An OT 8 That Does Not Believe In The Reactive Mind!

I now believe there is an almost infinite gradient of consciousness – from being “in the zone” (as athletes express it) to “everyday life” to “tired” to “drunk” to “sleepy” to “asleep” to “sound asleep” to “unconscious” to “almost dead” to “dead”, etc. And that we create everything we experience at all levels of consciousness. We also create our worries and traumas etc in present time. Some of this can be grouped into a model and be called “a reactive mind” if one likes. But, I hold that this is merely a model and that there is no such “thing”. This opens the door to a gradient handling of a person consciousness rather than attacking a “thing” that doesn’t exist. So, there are no Clears, just “clearer people” who have increased “awakeness”. This would explain the constant trouble in the Church of Scientology regarding Clears – they try to pin down an impossibility. David Mayo described this in the early 90’s.

I see the level of consciousness paralleling the level of free will in a person.

The quest then, is how to increase the consciousness, the free will of the person and the clarity of the mind.

random event?

Working with people with drive

Geir Isene 38 Comments

Just got off the phone with a nice guy. We talked about helping people, and particularly about helping brainwashed people inside the Church of Scientology. And I told him what people I prefer to help these days.

Just a few months ago, I would get fired up about trying to help people “see the truth” or “wake up”. No longer.

While I appreciate other’s effort in helping a person wake up from a brainwashed daze, I find my own interest in such waning.

I prefer to work with those who have a drive rather than those who try their best to keep the status quo.

And it doesn’t matter where that “drive” leads – as long as the person really wants to change and reach some goal, I am all in. My interest and ability to help people with a drive is high, and that’s where I will focus.

Drop sales

Geir Isene 12 Comments

If you are selling products or services that you need to convince the customers to buy, you are doing something wrong. Either sell something else or figure out why the customers aren’t running down your doors to get what you are offering.

Brendan had a week earlier this winter where he didn’t convince anyone about anything. That got me thinking. And I decided to at least stop pushing products or services on people. Market and present, yes. But using effort, no.

I figure it’s much smarter to present something that customers really, really want. And then deliver that better than they expected. Push is a sign of failure.

selling